Weekly Report 27/11/2023
Next Week's Predictions:
Capes: The Capesize market found its lustre again this week as it took in true fashion the limelight away from the Panamax sector. The week started in squeamish fashion as the spot fell by about 10%, to then turn around and jump by a massive 40% in 48 hours. The 5TC spot index started the week at $22,447/day and closed Friday at an impressive $28,071/day. Sentiment: 8
Panamax: The Panamax and related sizes continued their steady ascension towards higher rates as both the Atlantic and the Pacific showed heightened levels of activity and falling tonnage lists. The Panamax 4 TC spot index opened on Monday at $15,899/day and closed the proceedings at $17,221/day, with the week finishing about 8.32% higher and its highest level since October 2022. Sentiment: 8
Dry Bulk:
Recent policy moves suggest that the central government in China is willing to take on more responsibility. That's critical because other players such as local government, corporations, and households are not able to borrow as before. The central government has plenty of room to add leverage, as its debt is only 21% of GDP. So the question is not whether it can, but whether it will. Recent policy moves and the readout from the Central Financial Work Conference do point in that direction.
China’s carbon emissions have either peaked already or will do so this winter, seven years ahead of schedule. They may plateau for a year or two but will then go into exponential decline for mechanical and unstoppable reasons.
Based on the latest data from CEC, Chinese electricity usage reached 742TWh, down 5% m-o-m but this was 8.4% higher y-o-y. Power consumption has been dropping on a monthly basis since Aug.23 as per seasonality. Overall, the country consumed 7,606TWh over the Jan-October, up 6% y-o-y. (Perret Associates)
The IMF raised China’s GDP growth forecast to 5.4% last month, up 0.4% from its previous projection, and its industrial output marked its strongest growth since April, rising by 4.6% y-o-y in October. But real estate investments plummeted by 9.3% y-o-y in October, after falling about 9% in September.
Spot Indices and weekly FFA prices:
BDI 24/11: 2,102 - 17/11: 1,820
5TC BCI 24/11: $28,071 - 17/11: $22,913
4TC BPI 24/11: $17,241 - 17/11: $15,532
As announced in previous reports the spot 5 TC cape index has now bounced off more than convincingly off its latest resistance level of $21,500/day. The next stop is $31,500/day and if that is broken, then we are looking at $38,000/day
Weekly traded volumes and open interest:
Open Interest 801,552 lots - (768,169 lots)
Capes/Iron Ore/Steels:
Steel demand in India is up 11.5% y-o-y and saw a robust September performance accentuated by pre-festive demand. Generally, a net exporter of steel India saw an uptick in imports in August and September as domestic demand remained robust.
China imported about 99.4 million tonnes of iron ore in October, +4.6% over the previous year with iron ore imports over the period January to October reaching 975.84 million tonnes, an increase of about 6.5% annually.
The December Iron ore futures have been remarkably stable despite all the macroeconomic and geopolitical turbulence witnessed in the last few weeks. Dec iron futures still hover above $132/tonne, having flirted gently with $134/tonne level as positive Chinese macroeconomic news started to enter the market.
The Cape physical enjoyed strong rates across the board with C3 at the forefront by midweek as it was fixed at $23/tonne, i.e., $2/tonne more than last week. Within 48 hours that route jumped again last it transpired that close to $27/tonne had been concluded. The dog definitely wags the tail!
Panamax/Grains/Coal:
Indian power demand has come down since the highs of August this year but is still 9% y-o-y and dominated by coal-powered thermal, rising 7% y-o-y and accounting for 75% of total generation.
Indian utilities’ thermal coal imports increased to just over 46mt over the January-October period, up 1.7mt or 3.7% y-o-y.
2023 witnessed a pronounced increase in tonne-mile demand from Colombian coal trades, with a 3-year high for exports into South Korea and in April at an 11-year high for exports into China.
Electricity generated from thermal power in China stood at 465.41 TWH in October, whilst wind power produced about 56.31 TWH.
During the first 10 months of 2023, China imported a total of 383.6 million tonnes of coal, +66.% y-o-y, and the domestic coal output rose by about 3% compared to 2022 to a massive 3.83 billion tonnes.
So far in 2023 China has imported 82.3 million tonnes of grains, which is about 14.5 % higher y-o-y.
Brazil’s soybean exports and line-ups show strong volumes, much above the 3-year average for November, and the Panama Canal saw about 30 bulkers in the queue with a waiting time of 4 days.
The recent election of President Milei in Argentina will most likely be positive for agriculture and its much-needed US$ gained from large export volumes.
The Panamax physical market continued its robust rise as the Atlantic and Pacific demand was giving fresh encouragement for owners to ask for higher rates. North Atlantic minerals and South Atlantic grain cargoes were the foundation of this ongoing positivity.
Shipping and Decarbonisation:
Dec 23 EUA had basically a down week as it reached fresh lows at 74.60 by midweek, but saw some buying support at these levels which pushed prices back up to about 76.35.
With 4 weeks left before Dec EUA auctioning supply drops to zero for about one month, slowly but surely profit-taking from short players and risk-off appetite should kick in pretty soon.
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